NBA Mock Draft: Alexandre Sarr at No. 1 (for now); two Duke Blue Devils in lottery

The men’s college basketball season is upon us, which means it’s time to update my NBA mock draft. So far, we’ve already received quite a bit of information on college players, as well as a lot of tape on prospects playing overseas.

What does that intel say? That this class is as wide open for players to emerge into as any iteration I’ve come across since I began covering the NBA Draft over the last decade. While this mock draft is supposed to provide a snapshot of where league and team sources generally stand on the prospects at this exact moment, it’s hard to get a read on where scouts sit on this class and even how interested many of the key players are in participating in this draft at all. There are a significant number of polarizing players this season. That starts at the top, even if scouts believe this class could potentially offer some intriguing depth.

It’s worth laying out how questionable the top of this class is. While we are still in the early stages of identifying prospects with the potential to be the No. 1 overall pick in 2024, I do not currently have a player rated as a Tier One or Tier Two prospect.

I wouldn’t say I’m especially stingy with such grades. Over the last four drafts, I have listed the following players in either of those categories:

• 2020: LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards.
• 2021: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, Jalen Green.
• 2022: Chet Holmgren, Jabari Smith Jr., Paolo Banchero, Jaden Ivey.
• 2023: Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson.

That’s 15 players in four classes. Some of those players have hit, and some of them look like misses, so I’m far from perfect. No evaluator is. But 14 of those 15 players were taken in the top five, with only Whitmore falling to 20th last season due to myriad factors.

As of now, I have not yet seen a player in this class with the look of a typical top-three pick in an NBA Draft. I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone in this class who looks like an average top-five selection.

Players will undoubtedly emerge, and many will showcase real improvement throughout the season. But of the 15 players in the above group, 10 of them would have received a Tier One or Tier Two grade by me at this point in their draft process. More often than not, prospects at that level have shown themselves by now. Obviously, that leaves five players in those four years who jumped into that group during their final seasons as prospects, so odds are we will at least find someone at some point who makes himself into a top-three-quality prospect. But scouts do not believe that has happened yet.

A few other notes:

• Bronny James suffered a cardiac arrest at a USC practice in July. With so little information publicly known about his health and timeline to get back on the court, I erred on the side of not ranking him for now.
• A few additional names are worthy of top-60 placement, but I haven’t listed them in this mock because they’re freshmen and I think they may require more time to fully develop. North Carolina guard Elliot Cadeau reclassified up and will play either behind or next to veteran guard R.J. Davis; the growth curve for point guards who reclassify is not particularly strong, so I envision him playing two college seasons even though he is clearly incredibly talented. I previously mocked Elmarko Jackson at Kansas, but it seems like it might take him more time to develop. The same can be said for fellow Jayhawk Johnny Furphy, who I’ve received strong reports about as well. Kentucky’s Robert Dillingham and Auburn’s Aden Holloway are smaller guards that I’m watching early to see if they could go one-and-done. Xavier Booker has all the tools in the world, but Michigan State and Tom Izzo can be less forgiving to bigger prospects without the necessary defensive aptitude early in their careers.

With that being said, here are the players you need to know. (Ages listed are as of Nov. 13)

1. Alexandre Sarr | 7-0 big | 18 years old | Perth Wildcats

Truthfully, Sarr is No. 1 by default. He’s looked the best of the guys who have played in games so far, and the guys who have played so far are the ones in this class with the upside that most enthuse scouts. Sarr is a little more than 7-foot tall with real length, but his athletic fluidity is more important, as he slides his feet incredibly well for a big man. A big phrase gaining buzz in NBA scouting circles right now is “ground coverage.” In today’s NBA, where there is more shooting than ever and better, more well-spaced offenses, it is essential for great defense to be able to cover as much ground as possible. The ability to do so through length and movement, whether in off-ball help defense or in switching on the ball, is a differentiator for prospects.

Sarr covers ground on defense better than any player in this class. He flies around the court, both as a rim protector and in help rotations. The best point of comparison I’ve heard from people around the league is Nic Claxton, the Brooklyn Nets center who has developed into a top-10 defensive player in the NBA.

But for as good as Claxton is defensively, I don’t think teams are all that enthused about taking someone like him with the No. 1 pick. Sarr still has a ways to go on offense. He shows flashes of being able to shoot but has some funky side spin on his jumper. He shows flashes of being able to handle the ball, but it isn’t tight enough to work on an NBA court yet. He theoretically could be a good rim roller with his leaping ability and length, but his game tends to be more perimeter-based.

His talent and tools are real enough to where I feel good about his upside, but he has a long way to go and no assurance he reaches that ceiling.

2. Isaiah Collier | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | USC

Built like a classic strong safety in the NFL at 6 foot 3, 210 pounds, Collier is a big-time performer who loves getting downhill toward the rim. He was awesome in USC’s offseason tour in Europe, facing off against Serbian pro team Mega and top prospect Nikola Topić. For large swaths of the games, Collier and Kobe Johnson alternated looking like the best all-around players on the court, along with a strong stretch from Topić in the game he played. If you give Collier a screen opportunity, he’s going to use his speed and frame to barrel into the paint and either try to finish at the rim or hit kick-out passes. Collier is a superb playmaker for his teammates at speed and off a live dribble.

On top of it, he’s a good, aggressive point-of-attack defender who gets into his opponents’ airspace and fights over the top of screens with his strength. With Collier, Johnson, Boogie Ellis and (hopefully) Bronny James, the Trojans have one of the best backcourts in college hoops. They should be competing near the top of the Pac-12 again, and Collier will get plenty of chances to showcase himself to scouts.

GO DEEPER

College basketball predictions: The elite passer who will be freshman of the year

3. Ron Holland | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite

Holland is having a productive start to his season. He averaged 26 points, five rebounds and four steals against the Perth Wildcats in two games in September, then tallied 15.3 points, seven rebounds and 1.3 steals over three games in Singapore at the FIBA Intercontinental Cup. Holland is extremely young for his class, as he won’t turn 19 until after the draft. He possesses terrific speed and plays with a genuine motor. Defensively, he’s aggressive at the point of attack and a good on-ball player. He’s going to excel in transition, and his jumper has looked a bit better from 3, having made 7 of 20 in those five games with relatively clean mechanics at the top. With all of that, he’s in the mix to go No. 1.

But scouts are more split on him than one might expect. He hasn’t displayed much passing or playmaking skill at any level, and it’s a bit easy to see why. Everything for Holland goes 100 mph. There’s not much deceleration or patience to his game. Defensively, he’s been messy away from the ball and can get overaggressive at times. Scouts will be looking to see how he develops the craftier parts of his game this season. Everyone knows he’s a gifted wing athletically and plays hard. But they want to see more poise to indicate he might have a chance to be a high-volume on-ball creator at the NBA level.

Still, Holland is young enough to where he has time to figure things out.

GO DEEPER

Ron Holland signs with the G League Ignite

4. Justin Edwards | 6-8 forward | 19 years old | Kentucky

Scouts have regarded Edwards as a solid, well-rounded player who fills a critical need in today’s NBA. Teams love being able to get bigger wings like Edwards into their systems. Edwards is a dribble-pass-shoot developmental player who plays hard and fills the stat sheet. He loves to take midrange shots, but he has range out beyond the 3-point line as a lefty and can use the threat of his jumper to drive in a straight line and attack the rim. He’s a solid passer rather than a great one, but there is enough reason to believe he’ll make the right reads when they come available to him.

On defense, Edwards flies around. He has good hips to be able to stay in front of players, as well as the length to contest shots and get into passing lanes. He’ll aggressively crash the glass too. My guess is Edwards’ per-game numbers ends up in the 14-point, eight-rebound, two-assists, one-block and one-steal range this season. The key metrics to watch will be his shooting percentages, as Kentucky is suggesting it will play a more modern, up-tempo and open style that could generate more success for Edwards on the break and as a driver. If that happens, the Wildcats should be in good hands with Edwards and the rest of their freshman class.

5. Donovan Clingan | 7-2 center | 19 years old | Connecticut

Clingan is a pure center, and pure centers typically don’t go as high in the draft as they once did. So why is Clingan at No. 5? Because he was one of the best bigs in college basketball last season on a per-minute basis. Clingan is dominant on the block because of his ability to establish position against anyone in the country, but he’s also sharper in ball screens than he gets credit for due to his ability to seal off his man and identify the high point with the ball. He finishes well around the rim and is a little more fluid athletically than many realize. He has good short-area quickness and can cover the court well in transition. Had he entered the 2023 NBA Draft, he would have been a first-round pick.

Clingan’s real value, though, comes on defense. He was utterly elite as a drop-coverage big who took up the entire paint with his size and length. When Clingan was on the court, Connecticut’s opponents shot 41 percent when taking shots at the rim, per Pivot Analysis. That’s an impossibly low number. Teams only scored 89.9 points per 100 possessions when he was on the court versus 103.1 when he was off it. The difference between Clingan and some of the more prominent names ranked below him is that he is an elite defensive big man.

GO DEEPER

Top 25 most intriguing players: Caleb Love, Donovan Clingan, D.J. Wagner and more

6. Stephon Castle | 6-6 guard | 19 years old | Connecticut

The second Connecticut player in the top six, Castle is a dynamic pick-and-roll guard at 6-6 who can make passing reads across the court. He’ll throw impressive lobs and patiently wait for skip pass reads to come available, which he can make sharply off a live dribble.

The question with Connecticut is whether we see Castle playing more as a pure point guard or more in the connector role that Andre Jackson made so valuable a season ago. To be the point guard, Castle will need to earn those on-ball reps over more experienced players like Cam Spencer and Tristen Newton, both of whom are in their fifth year of college basketball. If he does, it’ll be a good sign for his game, given how good Connecticut figures to be this season. If not, he’ll need to show he can be a threat as a shooter and cutter, which will be valuable tape for scouts as well.

Another guy to watch for the Huskies, by the way, is Jayden Ross, who has received strong reviews from scouting sources. A sharpshooter, Ross doesn’t profile as a one-and-done guy, but he does have the look of a future NBA player due to that ability to hit shots.

7. Ja’Kobe Walter | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Baylor

I’m a believer in Walter’s game. He has a polished, well-rounded skill set that allows him to play winning basketball. He’s a sharp defensive player who knows his role and assignments. He is unselfish but confident as a scoring guard. His footwork is ridiculously polished for a teenager just entering college basketball. He doesn’t generate crazy separation with his athleticism, and he’s not even all that impressive as a ballhandler changing speeds and directions. But he always seems to have his balance underneath him and is a threat to pull up from anywhere on the court. That allows him to be a lethal scorer from anywhere.

He showed that skill against Auburn in Baylor’s opening night win. He had one of the better debuts we’ve seen in recent years, dropping 28 points on a team that C.J. Moore and I ranked in our top 25 in the preseason. The Tigers have athletic guards and long defenders, yet Walter still methodically found his spots and was able to score.

The most points EVER in a BU freshman debut.

🔥 @JaKobeWalter1#SicEm | #CultureofJOY

— Baylor Men’s Basketball (@BaylorMBB) November 8, 2023

This is what he’s done for years now. He was the best player on the best high school team in the country last season, finishing as the leading scorer on a Link Academy team that won the GEICO Nationals event in 2023. Look for Walter to do more of the same on what I think is a drastically underrated Baylor team that was ranked 20th in the preseason AP poll.

8. Tyrese Proctor | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Duke

Proctor has received strong feedback from scouts so far who have been down to Duke, and he backed up that confidence with a tremendous showing in the Blue Devils’ exhibition game. After a slow start to his season last year — Proctor reclassified to the Class of 2022 and attended college early — he came on late and was one of the best two-way guards in the ACC by the end of the season. An ACC All-Freshman pick, Proctor averaged 11 points, 4.2 assists and 2.9 rebounds over his final 20 games, 15 of which Duke won. He only turned the ball over 1.8 times per game in that sample and also played high-level point-of-attack defense while shooting well from 3.

Proctor would, essentially, provide a bigger two-way point guard with legitimate ball-screen skills. His ability to read the court and his potential off-the-dribble shooting ability differentiates him from the Killian Hayes-style guard who often struggles to adjust to the NBA. On top of that, it typically takes longer for guards who reclassify into college to emerge. It wouldn’t be stunning to see a star turn breakout from Proctor this season, especially with the level of shooting surrounding him with Jared McCain, Kyle Filipowski and potentially T.J. Power.

Even in Duke’s first loss to Arizona, I thought Proctor played well and made the right decisions. Teammates around him just missed shots when he fed them.

9. Matas Buzelis | 6-10 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite

Buzelis drops after scouts came away a bit underwhelmed by his showing against the Perth Wildcats. Buzelis blended into the tapestry of the game a lot of the time, as opposed to making an imprint on what was happening. He had a few nice cuts and made a few jumpers, but by and large, he was a perimeter player who also wasn’t all that impactful on defense.

Still, Buzelis’ tools are obvious. He’s a 6-10 athlete with good body control. He can knock down shots consistently from the perimeter, which would allow him to slide into a more low-usage role if his ballhandling skills don’t come along.

Ultimately, those will be the skills scouts will want to see throughout the course of the season with the Ignite. Is he more of an off-ball shooter and cutter, or is there some upside to develop him as an on-ball creator? Regardless of that answer, he needs to show strides defensively, where he can get too high in his stance and a bit lost off the ball.

Still, he’s a terrific shooter with NBA-caliber athleticism. The upside is there for him to have a big year. He could easily end up in the top five or could drop more into this area.

10. Garwey Dual | 6-5 guard | 18 years old | Providence

I’ve been higher than consensus on Dual throughout these early stages of the draft process due to his size and length at the lead guard spot. He has a creative mindset with real ballhandling shiftiness, which allow him to be a legitimate point guard and passer. On top of that, he has a chance to be one of the best on-ball lead guard defenders in college hoops. His 8-foot-8 standing reach and 6-11 wingspan are both enormous for a lead guard, and he uses those tools to disrupt players as they bring the ball up the court and try to initiate actions.

However, scouts who have been to Providence tell The Athletic that Dual’s offensive game might take some time and development due to his shooting issues and limited feel. Dual doesn’t have a reliable way to score quite yet, unless he is having a hot shooting run.

He had one of those against Milwaukee last weekend, dropping 14 points and making 3-of-4 from 3 while also racking up three steals and two blocks. His shot isn’t broken or anything close to it, so there is plenty of reason to believe he’ll improve as he gets older. That’s why he’s rated highly here. He makes quick decisions, should shoot it well long-term and is an elite defender already.

11. Kyle Filipowski | 6-11 forward/center | 20 years old | Duke

The key to Filipowski’s draft stock this year is his athletic development. I actually thought the big man who largely played the four for Duke last season was a bit underrated athletically. He’s better defending in space than he gets credit for being, and he has terrific body control as a ballhandler.

He averaged 15 points and nine rebounds last year for the Blue Devils, making him among the most productive freshmen in the country. But he apparently did so with injured hips that limited his overall flexibility. He had surgery on both hips this summer with the hope of opening his range of motion up a bit, and reports have been quite positive. He’s moving better and has noted in news conferences that he feels better this season.  The results early on have been strong, as he had 25 points and seven rebounds in Duke’s opener against Dartmouth.

Ultimately, Filipowski needs to show he can guard perimeter players in the NBA at a reasonable level and consistently make shots from distance. I think he can do both of those things, so I have him a bit higher on my board than many do at this stage. I am a fan of playmaking bigs with real offensive skill, so long as they can avoid being a defensive liability. I don’t know that Filipowski will ever be a plus on that end, but he works hard and can slide his feet better than most think.

I think he ends up in the lottery this season if the surgery on his hips ends up enabling the flexibility he hopes to achieve.

FLIP:

-22nd Duke player w/ 25+ points in season-opener

-4th-best FG% in a season-opener by a Duke player who had at least 10 shots pic.twitter.com/VrB5KTnZkV

— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) November 7, 2023

12. D.J. Wagner| 6-3 guard | 18 years old | Kentucky

Wagner is consistently among the players on whom I have received the best feedback from scouts who have made the rounds to different schools in the preseason. The Kentucky guard, son of 2002 lottery pick Dajuan Wagner, is said to be in spectacular shape. Scouts also appreciated the competitiveness he has brought on both ends and note that his jumper has at least improved to some degree since the last time they saw him. From day one, Wagner should be running the show at Kentucky, a team I think is underrated heading into the season. With that will come eyeballs and every opportunity to get to show what he can do.

The swing NBA skills will involve exactly where Wagner falls as a shooter from 3 and as a finisher around the rim, as well as his decision-making. Often more of a scorer than a passer in high school, Wagner has started to show that might be more to his game. I’ve moved him up substantially on my board based on the feedback I’ve already received.

Still, NBA teams aren’t exactly enthused about smaller guards right now, so his margin for error is smaller than most.

13. Nikola Topić | 6-6 guard | 18 years old | Mega

Topić is the biggest riser up my board. The guard for Serbian prospect powerhouse Mega has been phenomenal, averaging 19.4 points and 7.8 assists thus far through six Adriatic League games after winning MVP of the 2023 U18 European Championships this past summer.

Topić is a pick-and-roll dynamo, consistently playing at a fast pace while opening up passing angles through his creative vision and poise. He’s one of those players who knows how to get defenders on his back and make the exact read necessary. He can pull up from 3, get into the midrange area for shots off the dribble or creatively find angles around the basket for potential finishes. Topić’s most impressive skill is his passing ability, much as is the case for many young European guards. He dishes out a ton of assists from impressive reads with a live dribble, a skill that readily translates to the NBA.

Defensively, it’s a bit of an adventure right now. It would behoove Topić to have more positive moments on that end more often for scouts. But Topić figures to be among the most productive professional players in the class this season. Don’t be surprised to see him continue to rise. It’s getting harder for teams to dismiss his level of talent mixed with the professional league in which he’s producing.

14. Trey Alexander | 6-4 guard | 20 years old | Creighton

I’m a believer in Alexander. I would have had a high grade on him if he’d decided to stay in the 2023 draft.

He is a good athlete who does just about everything well on the court. He has been a terrific defender at the point of attack for two years now, taking on tough assignments at the one and two and thriving due to his aggression. Offensively, he’s grown as a shooter, hitting 41 percent of his 3s on more than four attempts per game last season. As a freshman, he showed the ability to play on the ball after Ryan Nembhard got hurt. Really, Alexander has showcased a little bit of everything.

This season is setting up to be his best yet. With Nembhard transferring, expect to see Alexander on the ball and running the show a lot more often. He will get every opportunity to be the central force of a top-10 team in the country, while playing off tremendous floor spacers in Baylor Scheierman and Steven Ashworth and an elite rim protector and finisher in Ryan Kalkbrenner. Alexander projects as an NBA combo guard who can play next to a high-level star, defend, shoot and create in second-side situations while also pinch-hitting at the point.

15. Izan Almansa | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | G League Ignite

Almansa is the most decorated youth-level European player of the last decade on the international stage. He was the MVP of the U19 World Cup as an underage player, was the MVP of the U18 European Championships in 2022 as an underage player and also won MVP of the U17 World Cup in 2022. He spent the last two years developing with Overtime Elite, playing as one of the youngest players with the program along with fellow 2024 draft class member Sarr. Almansa finished in the top five in both rebounding and field goal percentage last season and had the best plus-minus of any player on the YNG Dreamerz, the team that lost to the Thompson twins-led City Reapers in the OTE finals.

Seriously, Almansa is an incredibly sharp basketball player who knows how to play. He drops dimes at a real clip, averaging six points, eight rebounds and five assists in the Intercontinental Cup games the Ignite played in Singapore. His hand-eye coordination and touch are terrific.

Ultimately, NBA teams are trying to figure out exactly what his best role is. Can he be a legitimate big man at 6-10 without a ton of length? Can he score consistently if his jumper continues to be hit or miss? Defensively, is he quick enough to stay in front of guards or strong enough to protect the rim? These are all fair questions.

Scouts at this stage are all over the map on him. Some love him and think he’s a legitimate potential top-10 pick. Others aren’t sure he’s a first-round pick at all due to the role concerns. He’s one of the bigger swing players in this class, and scouts are excited to see him against more skilled athletes in the G League.

16. Jared McCain | 6-2 guard | 19 years old | Duke

McCain jumps up into the top 20. I didn’t rank him at all last time because I wanted to see how the Duke backcourt shook out in the preseason. Well, it looks like McCain has earned a starting spot. He was in the first five in Duke’s exhibition game, and he seems to have earned that spot over the long haul. Multiple scouting sources, granted anonymity so they could speak freely, tell The Athletic they have been a big fan of McCain’s closed-door play not just at Duke practices but also going back to various camps and all-star events last spring and summer.

McCain is one of the craftier, sharper players in this class. He’s a tremendous floor spacer and shooter, capable of knocking down shots off movement, in pull-up situations or when spotting up. His footwork and feel as a driver are outstanding, even if he lacks high-level explosiveness by NBA standards. He knows how to use the threat of his shot to create open opportunities. He must prove he can hang defensively, but he’s smart on that end too.

He generally possesses terrific feel for the game and looks like the kind of guard whose intelligence and shooting will allow him to thrive as a professional.

17. Zaccharie Risacher | 6-9  forward | 18 years old | JL Bourg

I’ve long been a bit skeptical of Risacher, who others publicly consider a potential top-five pick. That came to a head last spring and summer, when he really struggled in several opportunities in front of a bevy of NBA scouts. At the Nike Hoop Summit, he struggled to hit any shots due to his relatively flat jumper and didn’t handle physicality particularly well. Then, he was the sixth-highest scorer on the French National Team at the U19 World Cup, spending long stretches playing ineffectually.

Risacher seems to be turning things around early in the season for Bourg in France, where he’s averaging nearly nine points per game. His shot isn’t falling, but he’s clearly added some loft to its trajectory and has shown some comfort bringing the ball up the court and passing off a live dribble. He has real skills and the kind of frame NBA teams are looking for in a big wing.

How scouts evaluate the entire sample of tape on Risacher — the good and the bad — will be among the most interesting things to watch this season. He has real fans among NBA scouts based in Europe, but those offseason performances in front of important evaluators makes him a bit polarization at this early stage, according to sources across front offices.

18. Cody Williams | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Colorado

The brother of Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams will likely go through some growing pains early at Colorado. It’s going to be a process for him this season.

A skinny wing with developing athleticism and body control, Cody Williams is still growing into his game in a big way. He had four points in his first college game against Towson but also dished out three assists, showing his potential to make quick reads as a passer. Can he be something of a point forward at his size who also impacts the game with his length and athleticism on defense? That seems like it’s in the cards.

As I noted with Risacher, NBA teams love to take fliers on big wings who can cover ground and make plays on defense. They’re where the league is going positionally. Don’t expect consistent breakout performances night after night from Williams in Boulder, but we should see enough consistent growth to allow him to make an impact by the end of the season as the Buffs settle in for an NCAA Tournament run.

19. Yves Missi | 7-foot big | 19 years old | Baylor

This is another big call on my part, as sources around the country have conveyed stronger preseason feedback on Missi as a possible surprise one-and-done than possibly any other player in the country.

Missi, who reclassified to this year in May, has seen his developmental curve go through the roof over the last year. Originally born in Belgium, Missi grew up in Cameroon, where he started out playing soccer instead of basketball. But he comes from a basketball family, as both of his parents played on the Cameroonian national team, and his brother, Steve Moundou-Missi, was a three-time All-Ivy League selection at Harvard. Missi, now nearly 7-feet tall with great length, strong footwork and all sorts of bounce, has all the tools teams look for when deciding if a project big man is worth developing. He has a strong frame already that looks likely to add strength with ease.

Missi was one of Baylor’s most critical players down the stretch as the Bears came back to win against Auburn. He scored seven of his 10 points in the final six minutes of the game, as well as notching one of his two steals and one of his two blocks in that time frame. He will keep getting more minutes as the season progresses and should help lift Baylor’s defense.

20. Bobi Klintman | 6-10 wing/forward | 20 years old | Cairns Taipans

Klintman has been solid to start the season for Cairns, averaging 12.7 points per game while knocking down catch-and-shoot 3s with regularity. He rebounds well and also has been more active than his reputation suggested on defense. At Wake Forest last season, Klintman clearly was still adjusting to playing at a high level after growing up and developing in Sweden. Now three years removed from leaving his home country, Klintman is starting to show far more confidence. When he simply plays off instinct and attacks, he’s been terrific. When he starts thinking a bit too much, the gears in his mind start going and things slow down too much for him. He has some five-minute patches when he looks like the best player on the court and others when he is invisible. But he clearly has touch, and, like Risacher, is the kind of bigger wing/forward on whom NBA teams love to take a shot.

As long as Klintman keeps producing, teams are going to give him as much of the benefit of the doubt as possible, even as he continues learning how to make an impact on the game every time he hits the court.

21. Tristan da Silva | 6-9 forward | 22 years old | Colorado

Another mover up the board, as scouts who have been to Colorado tell The Athletic that da Silva looks terrific and poised for a monster season.

One of the more underrated prospects in the country last season, da Silva was an All-Pac-12-level performer whose versatility shone in the ways NBA teams enjoy seeing. He can attack off the bounce in a straight line from behind the 3-point line or knock down shots from distance on his own. He can post up against mismatches with his blend of strength and footwork. Defensively, he’s smart, making the right decisions and ending up in the right places.

The question some scouts have is whether he’s more of a wing or a forward who slides toward the big man spectrum athletically. He has enough skill to be a wing, but does he have enough athleticism? Can he defend on the perimeter? Those will be the big questions he must answer this season. If he can do both, he’ll have a good shot to go in the first round.

22. Ryan Dunn | 6-8 wing | 20 years old | Virginia

It’s no exaggeration to say Dunn has a case for being the best perimeter defender in college basketball. His length and athleticism already are better and make more of an impact on that end than teammate and reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year Reece Beekman. At 6-foot-8, Dunn is capable of sliding with guards and wings just as easily as he can bang inside against tough, physical players. He’s an elite presence when making necessary rotations, as he always finds himself in the right spots at the right times to make a significant impact on the play.

The combination of his shutdown on-ball defense and his ability to cover ground in help situations makes him the kind of wing NBA teams constantly seek. He also impacts the game in other timely ways with his rebounding, cutting and transition play. Having said that, Dunn needs to dramatically improve the jump shot. It doesn’t look broken, but there isn’t a ton of rhythm to it yet.

Dunn had one of the most impactful six-point games that any player in the country will have this season in Virginia’s weekend victory over Florida. He tallied seven rebounds, two assists and a whopping seven steals, shutting down everything the Gators wanted to do while rotating around like a mad man in help situations.

23. Melvin Ajinca | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Saint Quentin

Ajinca was a standout this summer at the U19 World Cup, where he finished second in scoring on a French national team that won the silver medal. Ajinca also is coming off a season in which he won the Best Young Player award in the second division French Pro B league, averaging almost nine points per game and shooting 39 percent from 3. So far this season, he’s averaging over seven points per game playing for Saint Quentin in the top French league.

Ajinca is known as a confident shooter and driver, as well as a willing defender with legitimate NBA athleticism. Scouts have some concerns about his overall feel for the game and want to see him making better decisions more consistently. He’s never been a great passer. Still, the lefty sharpshooter has a real shot to be an intriguing microwave scorer, with upside to be more.

24. Mackenzie Mgbako | 6-8 wing/forward | 18 years old | Indiana

I’ve received strong recent feedback on Mgbako from scouts, who said he looked quite good in the preseason. He also had a good showing during practices at Nike Hoop Summit, with his powerful 6-8 frame and long arms standing out, along with his ability to slide on defense and shoot comfortably in spot-up situations.

However, his first game at Indiana was a microcosm of some of the worries I have with his game. Mgbako doesn’t yet have a ton of juice on the ball as a creator, so he’s largely going to be reliant on players like Xavier Johnson and the Hoosier guards to create advantages and shots for him. That means he might look a bit invisible on some occasions, like he was Tuesday night against Florida Gulf Coast. Expect Indiana to run offense through bigs Kel’el Ware and Malik Reneau.

The key for Mgbako will be showing well on defense throughout the year and proving he can make an impact even when he’s not getting the ball often.

GO DEEPER

Mackenzie Mgbako commits to Indiana

25. Aday Mara | 7-3 big | 18 years old | UCLA

Until recently, it was unclear if the NCAA would provide clearance for Mara to play for the Bruins this season. That came through recently, which made it seem like Mara would be good to go. Then, he played just six minutes in the team’s opener against St. Francis, throwing things for a bit of a loop again.

The Bruins are loaded in the frontcourt with Mara and Adem Bona, another player listed in the top 35 of this mock. Bona is more of a defensive stopper; he was named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year last season. Mara is a more skilled offensive big with excellent passing and playmaking skill given his size at 7-3. He’s a good presence and finisher inside, and you can run offense through him at the high post and in short-roll situations because of his vision. Still, he’s quite skinny, and his defense in space needs a lot of work.

Right now, Mara is probably best suited to play in more of a zone defensive scheme where he doesn’t have to leave the paint all that often. It will take some time for him to acclimate to the United States. My guess is he’s brought along slowly and we’ll see more strong moments from him when the new year rolls around.

26. Dalton Knecht | 6-6 wing | 22 years old | Tennessee

NBA scouts have been excited to see Knecht at a high-major school. He averaged 20 points and seven rebounds per game in a  breakout 2022-23 campaign at Northern Colorado, shooting more than 50 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3. Though he’s an NBA-caliber athlete, his defense was a real concern at the other UNC, so evaluators were curious to see him in a tougher environment.

He decided to go to Tennessee this offseason, a place where you’re not going to play if you don’t defend. The results so far? Quite positive. Knecht dropped 24 points against Wisconsin over the weekend, but more importantly, he took on a difficult AJ Storr matchup on the wing and played pretty well.

I’m a big believer in the Vols this season, as C.J. Moore and I ranked them in top five to start the year. Knowing that Knecht’s play last season is translating this well to the higher level of competition makes me even higher on them. They’re a legitimate national title contender, and Knecht is going to have a real chance to emerge a a first-round pick. His talent is immediately evident.

27. Kobe Johnson | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | USC

I just think Johnson is an NBA player. If I think you’re an NBA player in this weak class, there is a good shot you go in the first round.

Johnson brings so many different intangibles that translate to the next level. First and foremost, he’s an incredible defender, having rightfully been named to the Pac-12’s All-Defense team after averaging 2.2 steals per game. His length helps, but he gets many more of those steals through sheer anticipation and positioning.

One of the most fun pieces of tape that will exist this season came out this summer when USC traveled for a European trip that included a face off against Topić’s Mega team. The cat-and-mouse game between the two, with Topić trying to manipulate Johnson to open passing lanes and Johnson trying to bait Topić into tossing interceptable balls, was brilliant.

Beyond that, Johnson can really pass himself and make plays for his teammates through quick reads and smart decisions. He hit 36 percent of his 3s last year; the key for Johnson will be upping his volume from distance and looking more confident firing when open off the catch. If he does that, we’re looking at everything NBA teams are looking for from multi-year college players who can step into NBA teams early and play.

28. Tyler Smith | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite

Smith has been intriguing in the Ignite’s first five games. A former five-star recruit who chose to go to Overtime Elite while still in high school, Smith then used that program to head to the Ignite this season, adding to their log-jam at the four. So far, he’s showcased the offensive talent that makes you believe he could end up as a first-round pick. He is a good athlete at 6-10 and has a smooth lefty stroke from 3-point distance already. He’s also a sharp cutter along the baseline and in the dunker spot, with enough lift to finish above the rim and enough strength to go up through contact. The idea is that he becomes a combo four/five with offensive skill and hopefully some backside rim protection on defense.

The key to all of this coming together will be on that end of the floor, though. Smith has not been very good on defense and doesn’t yet have the necessary instincts to be impactful there. His draft range is wide for scouts because of that. Those who work for NBA teams side are definitely in wait-and-see mode on how exactly Smith’s game comes together.

29. Riley Kugel | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Florida

Kugel had an incredible close to last season, averaging 17.3 points per game on 49.6 percent from the field, 39.6 percent from 3 and 67 percent from the line from February onward. He lacks elite size for an off guard, but at 6-5 with long arms and a 210-pound build, Kugel possesses a level of athleticism and coordination that allows him to function effectively in transition and half-court settings. It’s simple to say, but he moves like an NBA player. He has the kind of balance, coordination, explosiveness, power and physicality that NBA wings possess.

The key for him now is to show more capability on defense and as a playmaker. We know Kugel can get buckets. Now, he needs to prove that he can expand his game beyond that. He’s going to get a chance on a really talented Florida team to be the top dog. With talented players around him like Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and others, he needs to be able to make the right plays as opposed to just going out there and scoring. That growth did not look to be there in the Gators’ loss to Virginia over the weekend, as Kugel repeatedly put his head down to drive to the rim without a plan. NBA teams must see better decision-making to move Kugel into certain first round territory.

Scouts also tell me to keep an eye on Clayton. I’ve received strong feedback on him as a potential sleeper with how he’s looked thus far for the Gators, having transferred after winning the MAAC Player of the Year award at Iona last season.

30. Alex Toohey | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Sydney Kings

Toohey is the surprise of the NBL season so far over in Australia, at least among potential NBA Draft prospects. Most expected him to require two years in the league after he chose to turn pro instead of attending Gonzaga. But that has proven to be the right decision.

He has a real case for being the most impactful Next Star this season. So far, Toohey is averaging 10 points and five rebounds while shooting 33 percent from 3 in a tough professional league. He’s provided legitimate floor spacing and capable defensive play from the jump for the Sydney Kings, due to his high basketball IQ.  He makes the right reads and right decisions, playing a wholly unselfish brand of basketball.

As long as Toohey continues to prove that he can knock down shots – and I think he’s a better marksman than his early-season percentages indicate – he will have a role at the next level. There’s always a place in the NBA for 6-foot-8 players with a 9-foot standing reach who can shoot, provide reasonable defensive play and make quick decisions.

Second Round

31. Berke Buyuktuncel | 6-9 wing/forward | 19 years old | UCLA

32. DeShawn Harris-Smith | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Maryland

33. Kevin McCullar | 6-6 wing | 22 years old | Kansas

34. Adem Bona | 6-9 center | 20 years old | UCLA

35. Oso Ighodaro | 6-10 big | 21 years old | Marquette

36. Tidjane Salaun | 6-8 forward | 18 years old | Cholet

37. Terrance Arceneaux | 6-6 wing | 20 years old | Houston

38. Zach Edey | 7-4 big | 21 years old | Purdue

39. Aaron Bradshaw | 7-0 center | 18 years old | Kentucky

40. Dillon Jones | 6-5 wing | 22 years old | Weber State

41. Terrance Shannon Jr.| 6-5 wing | 23 years old | Illinois

42.  Thierry Darlan | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | G League Ignite

43. A.J. Johnson | 6-5 wing | 18 years old | Illawarra Hawks

44. Judah Mintz | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Syracuse

45. Wooga Poplar | 6-5 wing | 20 years old | Miami (Fla.)

46. Bryce Hopkins | 6-7 wing | 21 years old | Providence

47.  Reece Beekman | 6-2 guard | 22 years old | Virginia

48. Alex Karaban | 6-8 wing/forward | 21 years old | Connecticut

49. Ariel Hukporti | 7-0 big | 21 years old | Melbourne United

50. Juan Nunez | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | Ratiopharm Ulm

51. Baylor Scheierman | 6-6 wing | 23 years old | Creighton

52. Ryan Kalkbrenner | 7-1 center | 21 years old | Creighton

53. Mark Mitchell | 6-9 wing | 20 years old | Duke

54. Baba Miller  | 6-11 wing | 19 years old | Florida State

55. Kel’el Ware | 7-0 big | 19 years old | Indiana

56. Ajay Mitchell | 6-5 guard | 21 years old | UCSB

57.  Trevon Brazile | 6-9 big | 20 years old | Arkansas

58. Tyler Kolek | 6-3 guard | 22 years old | Marquette

Philadelphia and Phoenix have forfeited second-round picks in 2024.

GO DEEPER

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(Illustration by John Bradford / The Athletic. Photos: Graham Denholm, Michael Hickey and David Becker / Getty Images)