Twins targets: Get to know the top draft options after lucking into the No. 5 pick

February 17, 2023: LSU starting pitcher Paul Skenes (20) delivers a pitch during NCAA Baseball action between the Western Michigan Broncos and the LSU Tigers at Alex Box Stadium, Skip Bertman Field in Baton Rouge, LA. Jonathan Mailhes/CSM (Credit Image: © Jonathan Mailhes/CSM via ZUMA Press Wire) (Cal Sport Media via AP Images)
By Aaron Gleeman
May 18, 2023

MLB’s inaugural draft lottery was held on Dec. 6 at the Winter Meetings and the Twins improved their position more than any other team, moving up from No. 13 to No. 5, their highest pick since taking Royce Lewis at No. 1 in 2017.

Vice president of amateur scouting Sean Johnson was the Twins’ representative at the lottery and described his department as “ecstatic” about the good fortune, noting that their early scouting suggested there were five players who stood out above the rest of what is considered a strong overall class. Six months later that remains the industry consensus, putting the Twins in a prime spot to benefit.

With seven weeks until the Twins are on the clock in Seattle on July 9, here’s a look at those consensus top five prospects in the draft class, plus a few others to keep in mind as realistic options with the No. 5 pick.

Dylan Crews, OF (LSU)

At this point, LSU outfielder Dylan Crews is substantially more likely to be the No. 1 pick than to still be available at No. 5, ranking as the top overall prospect in the class according to The Athletic, Baseball America and MLB.com.

Crews has had a monster junior season, hitting .445 with 13 homers and twice as many walks (56) as strikeouts (28) in 51 games for an absurd 1.357 OPS as a 21-year-old in the ultra-competitive SEC. The Athletic’s Keith Law suggested recently that “Crews’ performance this year may go down as one of the greatest offensive seasons in college baseball history.”

In other words, the Twins got lucky at the lottery, but not “land Crews with the No. 5 pick” lucky. He’s too good to slip past the first few picks.

Paul Skenes, RHP (LSU)

Crews’ teammate Paul Skenes has emerged as the consensus top pitcher in the class, breaking out as a junior under LSU pitching coach Wes Johnson, who left the same job with the Twins in the middle of last season.

Skenes, like Crews, has amazing numbers, posting a 1.69 ERA and 152-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 80 innings. And the 6-foot-6 right-hander has the elite raw stuff to match, led by a triple-digit fastball and an excellent slider. In December, Skenes being available at No. 5 was a legit possibility, but he’s almost surely pitched his way into the top two or three.

Crews and Skenes could be the first teammates to go 1-2 in draft history.

Wyatt Langford, OF (Florida)

Another big-time SEC bat, Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford would be seen as a solid No. 1 pick candidate if not for the LSU duo. He set a school record for homers as a sophomore last season and has been even better as a junior this year, hitting .400 with 14 homers, 44 walks and a 1.348 OPS in 45 games.

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Langford and Crews have similar profiles as 21-year-old right-handed-hitting outfielders putting up video game-like numbers in the SEC. Crews is generally perceived as more of a sure thing, as well as having a slightly higher all-around ceiling thanks to superior defense, but Law grades Langford as having more speed and raw power.

Odds are Langford will be off the board by the time the Twins pick, but he’s at least a long-shot possibility at No. 5 right now.

Walker Jenkins, OF (High School, N.C.)

One of two high school players commonly ranked near the top of this college-heavy class, Walker Jenkins is a 6-foot-3 left-handed batter with a swing that makes scouts drool. He’s a center fielder for now, but figures to eventually wind up in a corner spot, where he profiles as a prototypical middle-of-the-order bat with the potential to develop substantial power.

Jenkins is considered the favorite to be the first high schooler chosen, possibly as high as No. 2 or No. 3 if the Nationals or Tigers are willing to take on more risk for what they perceive as more upside than the top college players. There’s a chance he falls to No. 5 for the Twins, who have selected high school players with four of their nine total first-round picks under Derek Falvey.

Max Clark, OF (High School, Ind.)

Max Clark is the other top high school player in this class and, unlike Jenkins, he’s a legit center fielder with the speed to play the position in the majors someday. At the plate, Clark can’t compete with Jenkins in terms of present or future power, but he’s a high-contact, line-drive bat with a smooth left-handed swing. If things go well, he profiles as a prototypical leadoff hitter with two-way value.

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Clark is precisely the type of toolsy, athletic prep outfielder the Twins’ previous, Terry Ryan-led regime would have jumped at the chance to take at No. 5. This regime hasn’t been quite as infatuated with that player type, but given the teams picking ahead of them and the college-heavy class, there’s a decent chance that the Twins will have one or both of Jenkins and Clark available to them.

“Clark is the high school player you take if you want big tools,” Law writes.

Chase Dollander, RHP (Tennessee)

Chase Dollander is something of a wild card as perhaps the most compelling argument for a strong top five really being a strong top six. Widely considered the top pitcher in the class coming into the season, the Tennessee right-hander hasn’t been quite as sharp as a junior, losing a bit of steam as Skenes broke out.

His numbers are worse across the board compared to last season, including an ERA jump from 2.39 to 4.35 and a walk rate that has more than doubled to 3.3 per nine innings. Dollander has lost a bit of velocity from what was a high-90s fastball, and his formerly dominant slider has missed fewer bats. Of course, he’s still racked up 94 strikeouts in 68 innings against high-level competition.

Dollander could absolutely be in the mix at No. 5 if the Twins believe his less impressive season stems more from mechanical issues than something physical. Six months ago the Twins would have been thrilled to see Dollander still on the board for them — there are no known injury issues and, at worst, he profiles as an impact reliever if developing into a front-line starter hits a snag.

Rhett Lowder, RHP (Wake Forest)

Despite possessing lower-octane stuff, Rhett Lowder has overtaken Dollander as the class’ second-best pitcher in the view of many evaluators. Led by an elite changeup, paired with a mid-90s fastball and a usable slider, the 6-foot-2 right-hander has a 1.52 ERA and 96-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 83 innings for Wake Forest as a junior.

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Lowder has considerably less upside than Dollander, and especially Skenes, but he offers the familiar and always appealing profile of a polished, strike-throwing college starter with a chance to get to the big leagues quickly. His slider has the potential to be a third above-average pitch, and Law notes that Lowder’s “funky delivery adds some deception” that induces weak contact.

Noble Meyer, RHP (High School, Ore.)

Would the Twins really take a high school pitcher at No. 5? On one hand, they drafted prep right-hander Chase Petty at No. 26 in 2021. However, there’s a big difference between No. 26 and No. 5, and they also traded Petty to the Reds for Sonny Gray nine months after drafting him. Noble Meyer is the consensus top high school arm in the class, and he’ll almost surely be available to the Twins.

Meyer features a mid-90s fastball that tops out close to 100, a swing-and-miss slider widely considered his top pitch and a changeup he hasn’t had to use much while overpowering fellow Oregon teenagers. He’s a 6-foot-5 right-hander with electric raw stuff and a front-line starter ceiling, but the decades-long history of high school arms as top-10 picks is abysmal enough to give any team pause.

(Top photo of Paul Skenes: Jonathan Mailhes / Cal Sport Media via AP Images)

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Aaron Gleeman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Minnesota Twins. He was previously the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus and a senior writer for NBC Sports. He was named the 2021 NSMA Minnesota Sportswriter of the Year and co-hosts the "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast. Follow Aaron on Twitter @AaronGleeman