Erling Haaland analysis: 68% of his runs aren’t used by Man City team-mates – when will they catch up?

Erling Haaland analysis: 68% of his runs aren’t used by Man City team-mates – when will they catch up?
By Sam Lee, Mark Carey, and Liam Tharme

Do you remember the last time Erling Haaland had a one-on-one with a goalkeeper? It feels like a while ago, doesn’t it?

That is because it was 16 games ago, at Leeds on December 27.

There are several reasons for that — teams are hardly likely to offer him space in behind to run into — but one of the main reasons is that, often, his Manchester City team-mates are not finding him.

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“It’s frustrating,” Haaland himself has admitted, although he has made that obvious on the pitch with wild gesticulations after he darts into space only for one of City’s midfielders to pass out wide instead.

Even Pep Guardiola has said it. After the Manchester derby in January, he was asked whether Haaland needed to do more to get involved in the action, but the manager pointed out that, in fact, his team-mates needed to improve.

“We need to find him a little bit more, yeah,” he said. “It’s true that sometimes we look there (out wide) when sometimes we have to look at him, but we will do it.”

A fortnight later, City lost at Tottenham, which prompted Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher to say Haaland had chosen the wrong club last summer.

Within the first minute of that game, the City analysts were visibly angry with Bernardo Silva for playing a pass out wide rather than in behind for Haaland, and that has been repeated several times in recent weeks.

Soon after that game, Thierry Henry noted that “in big games, they can’t find him”, and said City are “a bit more predictable”.

Guardiola replied: “I would say that I understand exactly what Titi wants to say, the fact we play and we put the balls to Haaland,” then insisted they were not predictable because attacking midfielders and wingers were making runs in the final third, but added they have to make even more.

That helps offset the fact Haaland has been isolated this season. It is not especially rare for a striker to be cut off from their team-mates but compared to how City have played in recent seasons, and particularly last season, it is striking how little he is involved in the team’s overall play.

Haaland averages the fewest touches in the City squad (26.8 per 90). Last season, the lowest outfielder was Gabriel Jesus, with 53.9 touches per 90 — almost exactly double per game.

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After scoring twice against West Ham on his league debut, the second after running onto a Kevin De Bruyne through ball in behind, Guardiola said City had obtained a new “weapon”, but fast forward to March and Haaland has received fewer progressive passes than Jack Grealish, Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Bernardo, De Bruyne and even Joao Cancelo. Overall, Haaland receives fewer than five progressive passes per game, which is among the bottom 20 per cent of forwards in the whole league.

The graphic below shows where Haaland receives the ball from his team-mates, with the vast majority within the margins of the six-yard box.


Last season, City’s various false nines drifted all over the pitch looking to combine and create overloads, as highlighted below.

One well-placed City source acknowledges that the lack of overloads in the final third, as a result of Haaland replacing the false nine, is something Guardiola has been trying to solve all season. One example is combinations between wingers and midfielders out wide and in recent weeks Haaland and Grealish have been working well off each other when the winger cuts inside.

Here are some typical examples of where Haaland generally receives the ball, including just how deep he drops sometimes.


In the summer, most concerns about Haaland’s suitability for City revolved around his link-up play in tight areas.

Against Newcastle United last weekend, he looked very comfortable receiving the ball and, like basically every other new City signing, there is little point judging any area of his game too harshly during his first season at the club, as the likelihood is that next season will be much better.

In terms of what is happening this season, though, it is worth looking at. His new team-mates set a high bar when it comes to short, sharp passing and Haaland’s turnover rate — which is possession lost divided by total touches — is the highest among the City squad this season at 29.4 per cent.

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There may be an element whereby City players feel that if they play the ball into Haaland there will be more likelihood of it being lost and the game becoming more transitional. Considering Guardiola’s general approach these days — particularly in the big games, especially away from home — calls for “a thousand million passes” and avoiding counter-attacks, it would make sense for the rest of the team to take the safer option, whether that be during a normal possession or, most noticeably, when it comes to those runs in behind.

As this tweet from Opta shows, Haaland was making a lot of runs that were not being picked up by team-mates in that period in January and February where Carragher, Henry and even Guardiola and Haaland were highlighting the issue.

It is interesting that three of those games were against United and Spurs (twice), sides Guardiola respects hugely and worries about their threat on the break in particular.

Here is the Bernardo non-pass against Spurs. He gets the ball in between the lines and Haaland’s run means the through ball really is a great option, but the Portuguese finds Riyad Mahrez on the wing instead.

Is it possible that Bernardo would not want to risk giving the ball away and offering Antonio Conte’s side a transition inside the very first minute, so he took the safer option rather than try to play in Haaland? It is certainly possible. Given the reaction of City’s analysts, Guardiola himself would not have wanted that decision.

Bernardo himself summed up what should happen in these scenarios before the World Cup: “I think what he (Guardiola) really wants is for the midfielders and the strikers, when the action is clear, of course we have to attack, but when we feel that the action is not clear to try not to force it, because if we force it too much, then we don’t give time to our defenders to join us and then to control the counter-attacks.”

There was a similar moment against RB Leipzig, where Guardiola stressed the need for controlling counter-attacks, and Gundogan did not play in Haaland and the Norwegian was livid.

Although his gestures were not picked up by the camera, you can see him looking back at Gundogan at the tail-end of his annoyance, a good 15 seconds later.

Haaland has said of the service he gets: “In the game (against Villa), I told Rodri, ‘Please look for me in behind’. I said please. I also told Bernardo to put it in behind, it didn’t happen but things take time. When we learn each other properly, the balls will come. I still got a lot of balls. Kyle’s ball, Kevin’s ball to turn into goals, the balls still come.”

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It was noticeable in that Villa game that City were looking for Haaland more. Although he only had six touches (the stat that has followed him around all season) before he was taken off at half-time, he just felt much more involved in the game and indeed got himself an assist.

Villa’s line was high, which certainly helped, but City were keen to find him. His assist is shown below, as De Bruyne takes the opportunity to find him in behind (which, in fairness, the Belgian has tried more than most this season).

Haaland beats Emi Martinez to the ball…

… and squares for Gundogan to tap in.

That was another of Haaland’s ‘seam’ runs, either between centre-backs or between a centre-back and a full-back, also shown below.

Many of those runs are either overlooked or simply not picked out accurately enough: he is picked out by his team-mates with close to one-third of the off-ball runs that he makes, on average.

Here, an off-ball run is defined by Opta as a “sustained off-ball movement by a player whose team is in possession, made with intensity, in order to receive a pass or create space”.

Those that are targeted are those where he successfully receives the pass after making his run. The graphic below shows the amount of runs he has made per game and how many have been taken advantage of.

This graphic also suggests improvement: City have found his runs more than 10 times for the past four games in a row.

Overall, though, you would have to go as far down as 26th on the list of Premier League strikers’ runs to find Haaland, with 31.6 per cent of his runs being picked out — that is below a few notable strikers, including former City forward Jesus at Arsenal.

It is interesting Haaland’s targeted run rate is very close to team-mate Julian Alvarez, supporting the idea that City’s attacking approach may well be born of some confusion from Guardiola’s players when trying to work out the right pass to make, weighed against the risks of losing possession.

“We will do it,” was Guardiola’s rather curt verdict after that Manchester derby in January and that may well be the case in the coming months.

New City signings normally take around a season to fully integrate into the team, it is just that on this occasion Haaland has hit the ground running, it is just taking the rest a little while to catch up.