Pronman: 2018 NHL draft grades

June 23, 2018

The 2018 NHL draft is over and 217 players have heard their names called. That can only mean one thing: It’s time for draft grades!

There’s a pool of people who love this. And there’s a pool of people who hate it. Let me discuss the latter group for a second. They will argue draft grades are a fool’s exercise. They argue that you can’t evaluate a draft until five-plus years after the fact. This is a reasonable argument. It’s wrong. But it’s reasonable.

Decisions are evaluated at the time of the decision using information available for that decision. Today is not about proclaiming who got the stars of tomorrow, but who, in my opinion, got the most talent and made the best bets for the future based on what we know today.

Grades are not relative to a team’s slot. Rather, they are based on total value acquired. I realize this will tend to weigh towards teams with high picks, but this I find is the most straight-forward way to accomplish this exercise, and readers can perform any relative adjustments they see fit. Grades are also done on a curve, where a B-minus was the average grade, with A’s and D’s being rarely given out.

Before I get to the analysis, I want to thank everyone for reading and engaging the past few months with the draft work I’ve produced. Your subscriptions go into my travels and into making sure I devote all the time I can to knowing these players. We hope you saw a return on your subscription and enjoyed reading along.

Onto the grades, which includes a link to analysis of every team’s draft class with notes on the players selected:

Anaheim Ducks

Grade: C-plus

Isac Lunedstrom was a reasonable first-round pick. He wasn’t my guy, but he’s a very solid player. The second pick of Benoit-Olivier Groulx at 54 is something I wouldn’t endorse. He has great character and can take tough minutes, but I’m not sold on the upside. They got value later in Blake McLaughlin (who dropped due to off-ice concerns) and Lukas Dostal, which got their draft up to a decent level.

Arizona Coyotes

Grade: B-minus

Arizona started their draft with a big bet on Barrett Hayton at No. 5. He’s a very good player, but he’s rich for me at that spot given he’s not a great skater and his skills are very good but not elite.

The John Chayka regime gets labeled as progressive due to his age and connection to analytics, but it’s hard to connect the dots between that label and picking Kevin Bahl in the second round (as well as other recent low-upside picks they’ve made recently). I liked the Jan Jenik pick at 65, and Dennis Busby is a great gamble in the fifth round, with David Tendeck being a decent goalie pick late. Overall though, given the picks they had, they should have walked away with more.

Boston Bruins

Grade: C

The Bruins didn’t have a first-round pick, but my impression from their draft is a shoulder shrug. Jakub Lauko was fine in the third round, Axel Andersson and Curtis Hall are OK. I think Andersson could be a player, but he doesn’t have a ton of upside.

Buffalo Sabres

Grade: A-minus

The Sabres draft started with them getting one of the best defense prospects of the past 20 years in Rasmus Dahlin. Their high second-rounder Mattias Samuelsson is a good player and can be a great shutdown guy, but I’m not sold he has the upside to be an impact player. I don’t think Matej Pekar is much of a prospect and I had limited knowledge of the next three players they picked. Dahlin is great, and he’s going to provide a lot to their franchise, but Day 2 isn’t something I’m overly optimistic about.

Calgary Flames

Grade: C

Calgary didn’t have many picks, so they did what they could. I didn’t like their first pick, but they gambled on skill later in Milos Roman, Mathias Emilio Pettersen Petterssen, and Dmitry Zavgorodniy. I don’t love any of those three players, but I see scenarios where they provide value.

Carolina Hurricanes

Grade: B-plus

Carolina got a high-end prospect in Andrei Svechnikov, who they can plug into their lineup next season. Jack Drury at No. 42 was high for me, but he’s a decent prospect. Their next two picks after Drury in Luke Henman and Lenni Killinen are also decent. Other than Drury, there’s no Day 2 pick they made I really disliked, but none that I’m entirely excited about.

Chicago Blackhawks

Grade: B-plus

Chicago got a potential impact guy with their first pick in Adam Boqvist. Nicolas Beaudin was a little rich for me where they got him, but he does a lot of things I like and he’s a fine prospect. I actually think their next two picks pick Jake Wise and Niklas Nordgren are better (they obviously disagree). I’m a big Wise fan, if he was healthy I think he would have had huge numbers this season. I didn’t love Philipp Kurashev or Alexis Gravel this season, but they have talent, and in the fourth and sixth rounds, respectively, they were fine bets. Beaudin pick aside, I like a lot of what Chicago did here and they helped their system a lot.

Colorado Avalanche

Grade: B-minus

Colorado’s first pick underwhelmed me a bit. Martin Kaut is a very good player but doesn’t scream upside in the top 20. I liked their Day 2, though. Sampo Ranta, Tyler Weiss and Justus Annunnen are good players, even if the goalie was a bit high for me. I thought Nikolai Kovalenko was great value where they got him. Overall, the Avs did a good job getting talent with each pick.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Grade: B-minus

Liam Foudy was a bit rich for me at No. 18. Elite, elite skater, but he has more to show me skill-wise to get into that area. Columbus in my mind salvaged it with their Day 2 pick in Kirill Marchenko. He may be tough to get over, but he has immense talent — one of the most gifted players in the class. He immediately becomes their top forward prospect. They made some decent bets on small skill later, particularly Tim Berni, who I have time for. I also have liked the goalie Veini Vehvilainen when I saw him in the last few years.

Dallas Stars

Grade: B-minus

Ty Dellandrea was high for me at No. 13, though I do like him a lot and, if he’s the guy I saw towards the last month or so of the season going forward, that could be a fine pick. On Day 2, Dallas did well. There’s no pick I loved, but nearly every pick they made is a player I’d have interest in — particularly their first three picks. Dawson Barteaux is a player I considered for my draft board but cut late. I don’t see a high-end talent here, Albin Eriksson has a chance to be that, but they got a lot of good players.

Detroit Red Wings

Grade: A-minus

The Wings had a massive Day 1, injecting nearly as much talent as Buffalo did with their first overall pick. Jonatan Berggren is also a high-upside player. The picks after that I was less enthusiastic about. Jared McIsaac is fine, No. 36 is a little high for me, but he wasn’t going to be available likely at No. 67. The later round guys were a lot of big guys who I didn’t see a ton from. I don’t think Wings fans should care that much though, because with their first three picks they injected a ton of talent into their system.

Edmonton Oilers

Grade: B-minus

I wasn’t crazy about Evan Bouchard as a top 5-7 pick as it was being discussed over the past few weeks, but at No. 10 he was reasonable value and is a very good puck-mover. Same thing with Ryan McLeod, who would be high to take in the first, but at No. 40 was a fair gamble on his big-time skill set. Their later picks were OK for me. Olivier Rodrigue is the top North American goalie, but just decent overall. They didn’t have many Day 2 picks, so they did fine with what they had.

Florida Panthers

Grade: B

Florida got a high-end talent on Day 1 in Grigori Denisenko and followed it up with one of my favorite players in Logan Hutsko. If Hutsko is healthy, I think he can provide significant value on that pick. In Denisenko, Hutsko and Serron Noel, Florida got three players I liked a lot and defined their draft.

Los Angeles Kings

Grade: B

The Kings got a very good player in Rasmus Kupari with their first pick. He might need time but he has the upside to play on their top two lines whether at center or the wing. Akil Thomas was good value at No. 52. Bulat Shafigulin at No. 89 is someone I wasn’t enamored with, but the numbers were off the chart; he’s skilled, I see the argument. Their later picks didn’t have someone I think was great value, but there was talent at each selection. I liked the approach, and I like the results for the most part.

Minnesota Wild

Grade: C

The Wild made a questionable decision on Day 1 going after Filip Johansson at No. 24. They were not the only team that really liked him (though I know some teams who had no time for him) but given his skill set it was slightly rich at best, and more arguably a reach. Jack McBain was a more reasonable pick. He slid further than I thought he would. Teams were concerned about his skating, but he’s a fine player. Alexander Khovanov is the ultimate wild card. He may come into camp next season as a completely different player. I liked Simon Johansson where they got him, and I think Damien Giroux has sleeper potential. Their Day 2 didn’t salvage their questionable Day 1 pick, but they left Dallas with some talent at the least.

Montreal Canadiens

Grade: A

Montreal had a very good weekend. The Habs got a potential impact center in Jesperi Kotkaniemi with the third pick. Jesse Ylonen is one of my favorite players in the draft, and while he needs time to round out, I think he has a ton of upside. Alexander Romanov showed me flashes of being a real player, but where he was picked was rich for me; I never saw that level of consistent impact. Allan McShane slid due to character concerns, but he has top two rounds talent. I could quibble with some of the other players. I didn’t like Jordan Harris, Jack Gorniak or Samuel Houde that much, but overall the Habs made some big bets on talent and gave their farm system a huge boost.

Nashville Predators

Grade: D

The Predators didn’t pick until No. 111, so a poor class isn’t entirely the blame of the selections, but even the guys they took didn’t do much for me. Jachym Kondelik’s skating limits his value, Spencer Stastney is OK, as is Vladislav Yeryomenko. The system doesn’t look much different in Nashville than it did prior to Friday.

New Jersey Devils

Grade: B-minus

The Devils first pick, Ty Smith, is a very good two-way defenseman with the potential to play in their top four. The first three picks they made on Saturday are none I’d have strongly advocated for, but Xavier Bernard and Yegor Sharangovich are both guys I considered for my board, and Akira Schmid is a fine goalie prospect. For a team without a second or third rounder, I think they did a fine job.

New York Islanders

Grade: A

The Islanders’ Day 1 was a big night for them, as they added two high-end talents in Oliver Wahlstrom and Noah Dobson, with Wahlstrom, in particular, being a massive add to their system. In getting Bode Wilde and Ruslan Iskhakov on Day 2 right away, they got four of my top 20 prospects in the class. That’s a massive injection of talent and fundamentally changed the state of their farm system from being mediocre to one of the league’s strongest. Jakub Skarek was fine at No. 72, a little high for me but he was one of the top goalie prospects. The rest of their picks were a mixture of underwhelming to a shot in dark, but really this was a great weekend for their future.

New York Rangers

Grade: B

If there were picks the Rangers made where I thought “damn, that could work out well,” it was their very first pick in Vitali Kravtsov at No. 9, and their very last pick Riley Hughes at No. 216. In between that, we got a mixture of solid to decent prospect. K’Andre Miller is very good. I didn’t love him in top 20, but he has potential. Nils Lundkvist at No. 29 was high for me, as was the goalie Olof Lindbom at No. 38, despite the fact I thought he was a top tier goalie prospect in the class. I didn’t have Joey Keane on my board, but I heavily considered him and didn’t mind that pick or the Nico Gross one. I give the Rangers a good grade, because at the end of the day, Kravtsov is a hell of a player, Miller a very good one, and they got talent on Day 2, but I think they could have gotten more at the same time.

Ottawa Senators

Grade: B

On Day 1, Ottawa got a legit high-end talent in Brady Tkachuk and followed it up with safer pick in Jacob Bernard-Docker. They had a fine Day 1, but I feel like they left talent on the table. On Day 2, I felt better about how they did. I like Jonathan Tychonick at No. 48, Jonathan Gruden wasn’t on my board, but I have some time for him, and Angus Crookshank was a late cut from my board but someone I’d have no issues picking. Kevin Mandolese is a decent goalie prospect, too. They did well. I think they could have done better, but the team’s in better shape than it was two days ago.

Philadelphia Flyers

Grade: C-plus

Philly had a very safe draft, targeting two-way guys with high character, but I felt they left talent on the board. They have a deep farm system full of skill, so maybe they felt they needed different kinds of players. Jay O’Brien at No. 19 was a little rich (though he is good), Adam Ginning was way too high for me. And overall their Day 2 outside of John St. Ivany was littered with average upside guys that don’t really excite me. Joel Farabee’s a good player, so Flyers fans should be excited about him, but I would have recommended doing things much differently than how this weekend went for them.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Grade: C-plus

Pittsburgh got a lot of talent with their first two picks in Calen Addison and Filip Hallander, the latter they traded up to get. Addison has a lot of potential, but he will need time. I have some time for Justin Almeida as well, even if he’s a long shot. Given how few picks the Pens had, they made them count outside Liam Gorman.

St. Louis Blues

Grade: B

The Blues got a lot of talent with their first two picks. Everyone should know by now I’m a Dominik Bokk superfan, but Scott Perunovich won me over this season. He has some risks in his projection, but he has a lot of upside as a puck-mover and scouts I’ve talked to say he’s improved from last year to this as much as anyone they’ve seen. The rest of their Day 2 didn’t do much for me, but those first selections could end up being quite valuable down the road.

San Jose Sharks

Grade: B

The Sharks got some fine players on Day 2, none whom I think are top guys but Linus Karlsson, John Leonard and Jasper Weatherby have talent. This draft for them is defined by Ryan Merkley, though, and his future will likely determine what they get out of this weekend. He has all the ability to justify this higher grade I’m giving San Jose as I’m a big believer, but the next few years for him will be very interesting.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Grade: D

I didn’t really like what the Lightning did here. Gabriel Fortier is a decent player, but No. 59 was too high for me. I had time for Alexander Green in the mid rounds, as well as the dice roll on Radim Salda late, but there’s nobody in this class I’m excited about or who I think was a great value pick. Tampa has proven me wrong before, but I’m skeptical about this class.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Grade: B-minus

For Toronto, I could quibble on who I would have taken at a given slot. Sean Durzi was a little early for me, as was Riley Stotts, but they’re both fine players. I particularly liked the third round pick of Semyon Der-Arguchintsev. Through most of their class, I can say I see talent in Stotts, Mac Hollowell, Filip Kral, Pontus Holmberg and Semyon Kizimov, even if they wouldn’t have been my recommendations. I liked the process, the players they got have talent, it was a solid weekend for the Leafs.

Vancouver Canucks

Grade: B-plus

Hughes is a game-breaking talent on defense and becomes the top D prospect the Canucks have had in a long time. I didn’t love their first pick on Day 2 with Jett Woo. Love his name, love his skating and compete level, but don’t buy a ton of upside in his game. I think he’s a prospect but would have preferred in the later rounds. I had time for nearly all their Day 2 picks. Woo, Tyler Madden, Toni Utunen and Artyom Manukyan were all late cuts from my final draft board. I don’t love any, but they are fine players. The draft hinges on Hughes, though, which I think is a good kid to bet on.

Vegas Golden Knights

Grade: C-plus

Vegas got one of my crushes in Ivan Morozov in the late second, which is right around where I had him pegged. I liked Stanislav Demin in the fourth round, too. After that, it was a bunch of average guys for me. Paul Cotter is OK, Peter Diliberatore is OK, Connor Corcoran is OK, Jordan Kooy is OK. They got some players but not a ton of guys I feel strongly about despite how many picks they had.

Washington Capitals

Grade: C

The Caps made a lot of safe bets without a ton of upside from their first pick Friday through the second round. They didn’t draft junk. Martin Fehervary can play, Kody Clark can play, but nobody I see in this class is going to be an impact guy, with Alexander Alexeyev having an outside chance. I don’t think Caps fans care though given the events of the last few weeks.

Winnipeg Jets

Grade: C

I didn’t have Nathan Smith as a pick, but I appreciate his skills and his trajectory and see the case for him. Same for Declan Chisholm and Giovanni Vallati, where I saw shifts or games where I liked them but it wasn’t consistent. David Gustafsson at No. 60 made me cringe a little given I don’t see much upside with him and there were chances to draft more talent there. The Jets did OK with what they had, some of the guys have upside, but nothing here really excites me.